Probability Modelling

The probability formulas we apply when modelling uncertainty for clients.

1. Classical Probability
P(A)=n(A)n(S)P(A)=\frac{n(A)}{n(S)}
2. Complement Rule
P(A′)=1−P(A)P(A')=1-P(A)
3. Union of Events
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)
4. Intersection of Independent Events
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)\cdot P(B)
5. Conditional Probability
P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}
6. Law of Total Probability
P(A)=∑P(A∣Bi)⋅P(Bi)P(A)=\sum P(A|B_i)\cdot P(B_i)
7. Multiplication Rule
P(A∩B)=P(B)⋅P(A∣B)P(A\cap B)=P(B)\cdot P(A|B)
8. Bayes' Theorem
P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)P(A)P(B)P(A|B)=\frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}
9. Expected Value
E(X)=∑xi⋅P(xi)E(X)=\sum x_i\cdot P(x_i)
10. Binomial Distribution
P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1−p)n−kP(X=k)=\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}