Probability Modelling
The probability formulas we apply when modelling uncertainty for clients.
1. Classical Probability
P(A)=n(S)n(A) 2. Complement Rule
P(A′)=1−P(A) 3. Union of Events
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B) 4. Intersection of Independent Events
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B) 5. Conditional Probability
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) 6. Law of Total Probability
P(A)=∑P(A∣Bi)⋅P(Bi) 7. Multiplication Rule
P(A∩B)=P(B)⋅P(A∣B) 8. Bayes' Theorem
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A) 9. Expected Value
E(X)=∑xi⋅P(xi) 10. Binomial Distribution
P(X=k)=(kn)pk(1−p)n−k